On the 29th, At Home Co., Ltd., a real estate information service, announced the results of its 40th "Business Sentiment Survey in Local Real Estate Brokerage" for the October to December 2023 period. The survey compared the Business Condition Index (DI) from the previous year in 13 prefectures and 14 areas, including Hokkaido, Miyagi Prefecture, the Tokyo metropolitan area (one metropolis and three prefectures, including the 23 wards of Tokyo and the surrounding areas), Shizuoka Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, the Kinki region (two prefectures and one province), Hiroshima Prefecture, and Fukuoka Prefecture. The survey targeted management-level individuals from real estate agencies with prefectural governor licenses who have been involved in real estate brokerage for over five years. The survey was conducted from December 12th to 25th, 2023, with 1,913 valid responses. Analysis was conducted by At Home Labo Co., Ltd.
For the current period, the rental brokerage DI in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose to 48.6 (an increase of 2.1 points from the previous period), marking the first increase in three quarters. In contrast, the Kinki region decreased to 41.7 (a decrease of 0.8 points), marking the third consecutive quarter of decline. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the Tokyo metropolitan area has seen an increase for 11 consecutive quarters, while the Kinki region has seen a decrease for 7 consecutive quarters.
Among the 14 areas nationwide, 9 areas saw an increase compared to the previous period. In the Tokyo metropolitan area, four areas other than Kanagawa Prefecture saw an increase compared to both the previous period and the same period of the previous year. Particularly, the strong performance in the 23 wards of Tokyo played a leading role in driving the overall improvement in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In the Kinki region, Osaka Prefecture and Hyogo Prefecture experienced a decrease compared to the previous period, while remaining stable or declining compared to the same period of the previous year. Kyoto Prefecture saw an increase to 51.9 compared to the previous period, marking the fourth consecutive period of exceeding 50. Among the other 6 areas, Miyagi Prefecture and Aichi Prefecture saw decreases compared to both the previous period and the same period of the previous year. The other 4 areas saw increases compared to both periods. Comments included observations such as "an increase in corporate housing cases due to transfers" (Chiba City) and "an increase in the willingness of corporate chains to expand" (Kobe City), indicating the active demand for corporate rentals.
The brokerage DI for sales in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose to 44.3 (an increase of 0.4 points), while the Kinki region rose to 45.1 (an increase of 3.4 points), both showing increases compared to the previous period. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the Tokyo metropolitan area decreased by 0.3 points, while the Kinki region increased by 0.2 points, remaining relatively stable. Among the 14 areas, 8 areas saw a decrease compared to the previous period, and 11 areas saw a decrease compared to the same period of the previous year. While there were notable mentions of high purchasing intentions in Tokyo's 23 wards and Kyoto Prefecture, overall comments pointed to a decrease in purchasing intentions due to the high prices of properties (Fukuoka City) and a shift from considering new condominiums to existing ones due to price and size constraints (Osaka City). There were also comments highlighting an increase in users negotiating discounts due to an increase in inventory properties (Sapporo City).
The outlook DI for the January to March 2024 period is expected to increase for rental brokerage in the Tokyo metropolitan area to 53.6 and for the Kinki region to 50.9. Optimistic views are spreading, with expectations for increases in 13 out of 14 areas. Chiba Prefecture, the 23 wards of Tokyo, Kyoto Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture, and Aichi Prefecture have outlook DIs exceeding 50. For sales brokerage, the Tokyo metropolitan area is expected to decrease to 42.9, while the Kinki region is expected to decrease to 45.0, with expectations for increases in 6 out of 14 areas.
Jun'ko Iwama, Executive Officer of At Home Labo's Data Marketing Department, commented, "In the rental market, the strong performance in the 23 wards of Tokyo is partly due to the recovery of commuting rates, which has led to an increase in demand for residences close to work and an influx of population. There are also voices mentioning that the peak season is coming earlier. As for sales, there is an observed trend of excess inventory due to the discrepancy between the desired selling and buying prices, but there is strong demand, especially in the central areas of Tokyo."
Reprinted from: Real Estate Distribution Research Institute Co., Ltd. “R.E.port”
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